What Are My Chances of Divorce? The Short Answer

Why get married if the odds are against you?

It’s terrifying to put all that trust in someone when the chances of it working out are no better than 1 in 2. Better not to get married at all.

But I have good news.

It’s no longer true that 1 in 2 marriages end in divorce. The divorce rate has been declining for the past 3 decades.

Today, it’s estimated that anywhere from two-thirds to three-quarters of marriages will last forever.^[1][2]

Your odds are better than you think. Here are 5 factors that impact the statistical likelihood of your marriage lasting.

1. Is this the first marriage for both of you?

The risk of divorce goes up 75% for second or third marriages.

2. Do you have a college degree?

Education plays a huge factor in divorce rates. Ninety percent of college-educated couples who married in the early 2000s were still married 7 years later. But for folks without a college degree, divorce rates remain high.

3. Do you earn enough money to live on?

Poverty or financial instability is hard on a marriage. If your guy loses his job or you can’t afford rent, the stress can break your marriage apart.

4. How old are you?

Couples who marry in their late twenties and early thirties tend to do better than couples who marry in their teens or later in life.^[3]

5. Are you committed?

If you’re going into your marriage with the thought that it might not work out, your fears may become a self-fulfilling prophecy. It’s scary to jump in with both feet, but total commitment gives you the courage to find a way to make it work when times get tough.

There’s one last thing you should know:

Even if you have risk factors for divorce, it doesn’t mean you’ll divorce.

Any more than having risk factors for cancer means you’ll get cancer.

Knowing that you may have a slightly elevated risk of divorce is simply a reminder. You may have to work at your marriage a little more than other people. And that can make your marriage better than anyone else’s—even the lucky ones.

[1] https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/heart-the-matter/201704/do-half-all-marriages-really-end-in-divorce
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/02/upshot/the-divorce-surge-is-over-but-the-myth-lives-on.html?_r=0
[3] https://ifstudies.org/blog/want-to-avoid-divorce-wait-to-get-married-but-not-too-long/